Progress towards quantifying storm surge risk in Fiji due to climate variability and change

Abstract

Szczecin, Poland, ISSN 0749-0208 Tropical cyclones in the Fiji region over the period 1969-2007 are characterized in a statistical model that represents the key features of their frequency, intensity and movement over the full period, the El Niño, La Niña and neutral cyclone seasons. During La Niña seasons, cyclones are found to travel along more southerly tracks and more from a westerly direction than the more frequent northwesterly tracks during the El Niño and neutral seasons. The statistical model was used to generate synthetic cyclones of varying intensity and track. An analytical cyclone model was used to develop 10 m wind and pressure fields for each cyclone track and a hydrodynamic m..