Journal article

Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations

RogerW Bodman, Peter J Rayner, David J Karoly

Nature Climate Change | Nature Research | Published : 2013

Abstract

The future behaviour of the carbon cycle is a major contributor to uncertainty in temperature projections for the twenty-first century1,2. Using a simplified climate model3, we show that, for a given emission scenario, it is the second most important contributor to this uncertainty after climate sensitivity, followed by aerosol impacts. Historical measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations4 have been used along with global temperature observations5 to help reduce this uncertainty. This results in an increased probability of exceeding a 2 °C global–mean temperature increase by 2100 while reducing the probability of surpassing a 6 °C threshold for non-mitigation scenarios such as the Specia..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council


Awarded by Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science


Awarded by ARC


Funding Acknowledgements

We thank M. Meinshausen and J. Kattge for supplying the MAGICC and MCMH code respectively. This research was supported by the Australian Research Council through the Discovery Projects funding scheme (project number FF0668679), Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant CE 110001028) and an ARC Professorial Fellowship (DP1096309).