Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia - What is the size of the matter?

Abstract

Objective: To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future. Approach: Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made. Conclusion: We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses. Implications: Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are..