Can Australia eliminate TB? Modelling immigration strategies for reaching MDG targets in a low-transmission setting

Abstract

Background: The 2050 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) for tuberculosis (TB) aim for elimination of TB as a public health issue. We used a mathematical modelling approach to evaluate the feasibility of this target in a low-prevalence setting with immigration-related strategies directed at latent tuberculosis. Methods: We used a stochastic individual-based model to simulate tuberculosis disease among immigrants to Victoria, Australia; a representative low-transmission setting. A variety of screening and treatment approaches aimed at preventing reactivation of latent infection were applied to evaluate overall tuberculosis incidence reduction and rates of multidrug resistant disease. Results: ..