The median informs the message: Accuracy of individualized scenarios for survival time based on oncologists' estimates

Abstract

Purpose: To determine the accuracy and usefulness of oncologists' estimates of survival time in individual patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods: Twenty-one oncologists estimated the "median survival of a group of identical patients" for each of 114 patients with advanced cancer. Accuracy was defined by the proportions of patients with an observed survival time bounded by prespecified multiples of their estimated survival time. We expected 50% to live longer (or shorter) than their oncologist's estimate (calibration), 50% to live from half to double their estimate (typical scenario), 5% to 10% to live ≤ one quarter of their estimate (worst-case scenario), and 5% to 10% to live ..