A comparison of predictions made by three simulation models of foot -and-mouth disease

Abstract

Aims: To describe results of a relative validation exercise using the three simulation models of foot -and-mouth disease (FMD) in use by the quadrilateral countries (QUADS; Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and United States of America; USA). Methods: A hypothetical population of farms was constructed and, following the introduction of an FMD-like disease into a single farm, spread of disease was simulated using each of the three FMD simulation models used by the QUADS countries. A series of 11 scenarios was developed to systematically evaluate the key processes of disease transmission and control used by each of the three models. The predicted number of infected units and the size of predicte..