Journal article
A scaling approach to probabilistic assessment of regional climate change
K Frieler, M Meinshausen, M Mengel, N Braun, W Hare
Journal of Climate | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2012
Abstract
A new approach to probabilistic projections of regional climate change is introduced. It builds on the already established quasi-linear relation between global-mean temperature and regional climate change found in atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The new approach simultaneously 1) takes correlations between temperature- and precipitation-related uncertainty distributions into account, 2) enables the inclusion of predictors other than global-mean temperature, and 3) checks for the interscenario and interrun variability of the scaling relationships. This study tests the effectiveness of SO x and black carbon emissions and greenhouse gas forcings as additional predictors o..
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Awarded by UFOPLAN by the German Federal Environment Agency
Funding Acknowledgements
KF and MM were supported by the UFOPLAN project (FKZ 370841103) by the German Federal Environment Agency. We thank Reto Knutti and Julie Arblaster for initial NCL code examples to diagnose the AOGCM data, which were the early basis for our R-based diagnostics routines. We thank Tom Wigley for his collaboration on MAGICC and SCENGEN. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.