Changes in global-mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon
K Frieler, M Meinshausen, T Schneider von Deimling, T Andrews, P Forster
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2011
Precipitation changes are a key driver of climate change impacts. On average, global precipitation is expected to increase with warming. However, model projections show that precipitation does not scale linearly with surface air temperature. Instead, global hydrological sensitivity, the relative change of global-mean precipitation per degree of global warming, seems to vary across different scenarios and even with time. Based on output from 20 coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models for up to 7 different scenarios, we discuss to what extent these variations can be explained by changes in the tropospheric energy budget. Our analysis supports earlier findings that long- and shortwa..View full abstract
Awarded by German Federal Environment Agency
Awarded by Economic and Social Research Council
KF and MM were supported by the UFO-PLAN project (FKZ 370841103) by the German Federal Environment Agency. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. In particular we thank Vaishali Naik and Larry Horowitz for providing BC emission data for the GFDL model runs and Tim Johns for providing information about the BC data used for the HadGEM1 runs. We acknowledge Toru Nozawa providing the BC data for the MIROC model runs. Gary Strand provided the BC-scaling coefficients used within the CCSM3 runs and Dorothy Koch provided the information about the GISS BC input.