Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: Global and regional emission implications

Abstract

This article presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO2-equivalent concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO2-equivalent, along with an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achieving the EU climate target of 2°C. For achieving the 2°C target with a probability of more than 60%, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent or below, if the 90% uncertainty range for climate sensitivity is believed to be 1.5 4.5°C. A stabilization at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent or below (400 ppm) requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial overall reductions ..