Evaluating alternative approaches to managing animal disease outbreaks--the role of modelling in policy formulation.
M Graeme Garner, Caroline Dubé, Mark A Stevenson, Robert L Sanson, Conrad Estrada, John Griffin
Vet Ital | Published : 2007
Modelling is a powerful tool for informing development of policies for the control of animal diseases. By permitting the study of 'what if' scenarios, this tool can be used to help identify and evaluate strategies to reduce the number of animals destroyed to eradicate diseases. To be useful, models need to be fit for purpose and appropriately verified and validated. For informing disease control policy, modelling will be most useful when used before an outbreak, particularly in the areas of retrospective analysis of previous outbreaks, contingency planning, resource planning, risk assessments and training. Recent experience suggests that predictive modelling during actual outbreaks needs to ..View full abstract