IDENTIFYING AND QUANTIFYING PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS-RELATED INTERSTITIAL LUNG DISEASE USING A TIME-VARYING COVARIATE SURVIVAL MODEL

Abstract

Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a leading cause of mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). We have shown that total extent of lung disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) lung, reported using a simple grading system,[1] can determine prognosis in SSc-ILD. Objectives We assessed factors that predicted deterioration in ILD using a time varying covariate model. Methods SSc patients with a baseline HRCT around the time of diagnosis of ILD were identified through the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS). All HRCTs and pulmonary function tests (PFTs) performed during follow-up were retrieved. Demographic and disease-related data were prospectively collected in the ASCS database. HR..