Journal article

A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century

R Knutti, MR Allen, P Friedlingstein, JM Gregory, GC Hegerl, GA Meehl, M Meinshausen, JM Murphy, G-K Plattner, SCB Raper, TF Stocker, PA Stott, H Teng, TML Wigley

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2008

Abstract

Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not ..

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