Finding needles (or ants) in haystacks: predicting locations of invasive organisms to inform eradication and containment

Abstract

To eradicate or effectively contain a biological invasion, all or most reproductive individuals of the invasion must be found and destroyed. To help find individual invading organisms, predictions of probable locations can be made with statistical models. We estimated spread dynamics based on time-series data and then used model-derived predictions of probable locations of individuals. We considered one of the largest data sets available for an eradication program: the campaign to eradicate the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) from around Brisbane, Australia. After estimating within-site growth (local growth) and intersite dispersal (saltatory spread) of fire ant nests, we modeled ..