The role of smoking intentions in predicting future smoking among youth: Findings from Monitoring the Future data

Abstract

Aims: To demonstrate that intentions predict long-term future levels of smoking, irrespective of level of past smoking experience. A growing body of research suggests that intentions about future smoking might play an important role in addition to the influence of past smoking experience on the likelihood of smoking in future. Design: Using logistic regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between baseline smoking experience and a firm intention 'not to be smoking cigarettes 5 years from now' with four outcome measures of smoking at follow-up: 30-day smoking at a 3/4- and 5/6-year follow-up and current established smoking (self-described regular smokers or former smokers who had smo..