Trends and determinants of excess winter mortality in New Zealand: 1980 to 2000

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although many countries experience an increase in mortality during winter, the magnitude of this increase varies considerably, suggesting that some winter excess may be avoidable. Conflicting evidence has been presented on the role of gender, region and deprivation. Little has been published on the magnitude of excess winter mortality (EWM) in New Zealand (NZ) and other Southern Hemisphere countries. METHODS: Monthly mortality rates per 100,000 population were calculated from routinely collected national mortality data for 1980 to 2000. Generalised negative binomial regression models were used to compare mortality rates between winter (June-September) and the warmer months (Octob..