Quantifying storm tide risk in Fiji due to climate variability and change

Abstract

Extreme sea level events due to tropical cyclone storm surge combined with astronomical tide (storm tides) severely impact Pacific Island communities and these impacts are expected to increase with projected sea level rise. However, these sea level extremes are not well characterised by available tide gauge records owing to the low frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones, the sparse array of tide gauges and the short time frame over which many gauges in this region have been operating. In this study, a combined statistical/dynamical method for estimating storm tide risk is presented. Tropical cyclones in the Fiji region over the period 1969-2007 are characterised in a statistical model ..