Journal article

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

Hui Wang, Lindsey Long, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Jae-Kyung E Schemm, Ming Zhao, Gabriel A Vecchi, Timothy E Larow, Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried D Schubert, Daniel A Shaevitz, Suzana J Camargo, Naomi Henderson, Daehyun Kim, Jeffrey A Jonas, Kevin JE Walsh



The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multimodel ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variabilit..

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Awarded by Directorate For Geosciences

Funding Acknowledgements

This work was carried out as part of a Hurricane Working Group activity supported by the U.S. CLIVAR. The authors thank the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for archiving model data and making them accessible online. The authors also thank Prof. Kerry A. Emanuel, Dr. Christopher W. Landsea, Mr. Bill Mohan, an anonymous reviewer, and the editor for their insightful and constructive comments and suggestions.