Journal article

Bayesian Estimates of Transition Probabilities in Seven Small Lithophytic Orchid Populations: Maximizing Data Availability from Many Small Samples

Raymond L Tremblay, Michael A McCarthy

PLoS One | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2014


Predicting population dynamics for rare species is of paramount importance in order to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and planning conservation strategies. However, evaluating and predicting population viability can be hindered from a lack of data. Rare species frequently have small populations, so estimates of vital rates are often very uncertain due to lack of data. We evaluated the vital rates of seven small populations from two watersheds with varying light environment of a common epiphytic orchid using Bayesian methods of parameter estimation. From the Lefkovitch matrices we predicted the deterministic population growth rates, elasticities, stable stage distributions and the cred..

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Awarded by National Science Foundation, HRD

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

This research was partly funded by a FoPI grant from the University of Puerto Rico - Humacao campus, and by the National Science Foundation, HRD #026200, the Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, the Australian Research Council (DP0346165), and the Applied Environmental Decision Analysis hub. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.