Another Pandora's box? Some pros and cons of predictive risk modeling

Abstract

Early intervention, promoted as being important to the prevention of child maltreatment, is challenged by the difficulty of identifying at risk families before patterns of abuse are established. A way of identifying these families before they reach the radar of statutory systems of child protection is through predictive risk modeling (PRM). Using large datasets PRM tools are able to use algorithms with significant capacity to ascertain and stratify children's risk of experiencing maltreatment in the future. In the process, however, they also identify families who may well benefit from support but are not on a maltreatment trajectory - the so called 'false positives' who would not be among th..