Conference Proceedings

Volatility Homogenisation Decomposition for Forecasting

Adam W Kowalewski, Owen D Jones, Kotagiri Ramamohanarao, A Serguieva (ed.), D Maringer (ed.), V Palade (ed.), RJ Almeida (ed.)

IEEE | Published : 2014

Abstract

We explore the idea that by modeling a financial time series at regular points in space (i.e. price) rather than regular points in time, more predictive power can be extracted from the time series. We will term this concept of modeling time series at regular points in space as 'volatility homogenisation'. Our hypothesis is that if we select the correct quantum in terms of regular steps in space, we replace noise which can normally interfere with prediction methods and thus uncover the underlying patterns in the time series. Furthermore, this technique can also be viewed a way of decoupling spatial and temporal dependence, which again, can replace unnecessary noise. We apply this decompositio..

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University of Melbourne Researchers