Journal article

The dynamical consequences of seasonal forcing, immune boosting and demographic change in a model of disease transmission

Mathew P Dafilis, Federico Frascoli, Jodie McVernon, Jane M Heffernan, James M McCaw

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY | ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD | Published : 2014

Abstract

The impact of seasonal effects on the time course of an infectious disease can be dramatic. Seasonal fluctuations in the transmission rate for an infectious disease are known mathematically to induce cyclical behaviour and drive the onset of multistable and chaotic dynamics. These properties of forced dynamical systems have previously been used to explain observed changes in the period of outbreaks of infections such as measles, varicella (chickenpox), rubella and pertussis (whooping cough). Here, we examine in detail the dynamical properties of a seasonally forced extension of a model of infection previously used to study pertussis. The model is novel in that it includes a non-linear feedba..

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Grants

Funding Acknowledgements

J.M. is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) Career Development Fellowship. J.M.M. is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship. M.P.D. and F.F. performed the numerical analyses and drafted the first version of the manuscript. J.M. contributed to the public health evaluation of the findings and contextualisation of the research in terms of the existing public health literature. J.H. contributed to the interpretation of model findings and contextualisation of the research in terms of the existing mathematical literature. J.M.M. formulated the scientific problem, oversaw the research, evaluated the findings and wrote the final version of the manuscript. The authors declare no competing financial interests.