Journal article

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

A Levermann, R Winkelmann, S Nowicki, JL Fastook, K Frieler, R Greve, HH Hellmer, MA Martin, M Meinshausen, M Mengel, AJ Payne, D Pollard, T Sato, R Timmermann, WL Wang, RA Bindschadler

Earth System Dynamics | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2014

Abstract

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forci..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by German federal ministry of education and research (BMBF)


Awarded by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)


Awarded by NASA Cryospheric Science program


Awarded by German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety


Awarded by European Union


Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council


Funding Acknowledgements

R. Winkelmann and M. A. Martin were funded by the German federal ministry of education and research (BMBF grant 01LP1171A). M. Meinshausen was funded by the Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt. R. Greve and T. Sato were supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research A (no. 22244058) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). S. Nowicki, R. A. Bindschadler, and W. L. Wang were supported by the NASA Cryospheric Science program (grants 281945.02.53.02.19 and 281945.02.53.02.20). K. Frieler was supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS and LDCs). H. H. Hellmer, A. J. Payne and R. Timmermann were supported by the ice2sea programme from the European Union 7th Framework Programme, grant no. 226375.