Journal article

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Hammad Ali, Ewan Cameron, Christopher C Drovandi, James M Mccaw, Rebecca J Guy, Melanie Middleton, Carol El-Hayek, Jane S Hocking, John M Kaldor, Basil Donovan, David P Wilson

SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS | BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2015

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method for estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. METHODS: A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shapes of these beta parameters were chosen to ..

View full abstract