A method for quantifying differentiation between populations at multi-allelic loci and its implications for investigating identity and paternity

Abstract

A method is proposed for allowing for the effects of population differentiation, and other factors, in forensic inference based on DNA profiles. Much current forensic practice ignores, for example, the effects of coancestry and inappropriate databases and is consequently systematically biased against defendants. Problems with the 'product rule' for forensic identification have been highlighted by several authors, but important aspects of the problems are not widely appreciated. This arises in part because the match probability has often been confused with the relative frequency of the profile. Further, the analogous problems in paternity cases have received little attention. The proposed met..