Reducing wildfire risk to urban developments: Simulation of cost-effective fuel treatment solutions in south eastern Australia

Abstract

Wildfires can result in significant economic and social losses. Prescribed fire is commonly applied to reduce fuel loads and thereby decrease future fire risk to life and property. Fuel treatments can occur in the landscape or adjacent to houses. Location of the prescribed burns can significantly alter the risk of house loss. Furthermore the cost of treating fuels in the landscape is far cheaper than treating fuels adjacent to the houses. Here we develop a Bayesian Network to examine the relative reduction in risk that can be achieved by prescribed burning in the landscape compared with a 500m interface zone adjacent to houses. We then compare costs of management treatments to determine the ..