Can we predict the onset of first-episode psychosis in a high-risk group?

Abstract

Treating individuals in the prodromal phase preceding a first psychotic episode has long been a goal of clinicians, the aim being to prevent or minimize the harm inflicted by a psychosis. Before embarking on such a preventive approach, it is first necessary to characterize the features of impending psychosis. We have defined a set of criteria, based on various state and trait risk factors, to identify subjects likely to undergo transition to psychosis within a short time. We prospectively followed up 23 subjects fulfilling these criteria. Subjects were assessed monthly on measures of psychopathology for 12 months. Eleven of the 23 subjects (48%) made the transition to frank psychosis in the ..