A method for validating stochastic models of population viability: A case study of the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus)

Abstract

1. A method of validating stochastic models of population viability is proposed, based on assessing the mean and variance of the predicted population size. 2. The method is illustrated with a model of the population dynamics of the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus Broom 1895), based on annual census data collected from a single population in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia between 1986 and 1997. The model incorporates density-dependence in survivorship and recruitment, and demographic and environmental stochasticity. 3. The model appeared to make reasonable predictions for the three populations that were used for validation, provided the equilibrium population size wa..