Spatially-correlated extinction in a metapopulation model of Leadbeater's Possum

Abstract

The importance of considering spatially-correlated extinction in metapopulation viability analyses was investigated using a model of the population dynamics of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy (Leadbeater's Possum). Fire caused local extinction of G. leadbeateri and induced changes in the suitability of the habitat over a period of decades and centuries. Spatially-correlated fires, in which the correlation between the incidence of fire declines with distance, and uniformly-correlated fires were simulated. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction increased: (i) as the variance in the number of fires each year increased, (ii) as the mean fire interval decreased, and (iii) as the mean dis..