Journal article

Detecting change in an Australian flowering record: Comparisons of linear regression and cumulative sum analysis change point analysis

Marie R Keatley, Irene L Hudson

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY | WILEY | Published : 2012

Abstract

Linear regression and cumulative sum analysis (CUSUM) change point analyses were used to determine whether there had been a significant change in the first flowering date between 1983 and 2006 for 65 species. Both methods agreed that the first flowering date of 47 species did not change and that eight species had a significant change (P < 0.05) in their flowering. Three species shifted to later flowering and five species to earlier. Over the observation period, each method found that the average shift to later flowering was greater (37.4 days or approx. 1.56 days per year for CUSUM change point analysis and 51.4 days or 2.14 days per year for linear regression) than that to earlier flowering..

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University of Melbourne Researchers