Uncertainty in spatially explicit population models

Abstract

Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) are often used in conservation planning. However, confidence intervals around predictions of spatially explicit population models can greatly underestimate model uncertainty. This is partly because some sources of uncertainty are not amenable to the classic methods of uncertainty analysis. Here, we present a method that can be used to include multiple sources of uncertainty into more realistic confidence intervals. To illustrate our approach, we use a case study of the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) in the fragmented forest of the North Carolina Piedmont. We examine 6 important sources of uncertainty in our spatially explicit population model:..