Sensitivity of the distribution of thunderstorms to sea surface temperatures in four Australian east coast lows

Abstract

The relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution and the locations of thunderstorms during four Australian east coast lows is investigated using both lightning observations and numerical simulation results. The focus is placed on investigating changes in convective instability caused by the introduction of complex, high-resolution ocean eddy, and frontal structures present in Bluelink SST datasets. Global Position and Tracking System lightning data are overlaid on maps of SST to investigate whether a thunderstorm–SST relationship is discernible. Weather Research and Forecast model simulations are used to establish what atmospheric changes contribute to the observed dis..