Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
Andrew D King, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, David J Karoly, Sophie C Lewis, Heidi Cullen
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | IOP PUBLISHING LTD | Published : 2015
In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate models and empirical techniques, our analysis shows a substantial and significant increase in the likelihood of record-breaking warm years, such as 2014, due to human influences on climate. With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold. This study points to a large influence of human activities on extreme warm years despite the small region of study and the variable climate of Central England. Our analysis shows that climate change is clearly visible on the ..View full abstract
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Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Awarded by EUCLEIA project - European Union
This research was supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant CE 110001028) and the NCI National Facility in Australia. GJ van Oldenborgh was supported by the NWO project 'Trend or Coincidence' and the EUCLEIA project funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under grant agreement no. 607085. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We also thank the Met Office for providing the annual Central England Temperature series through the HadOBS website (http:metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/).