Applications of time-series analysis to antibiotic resistance and consumption data

Abstract

During the past 20 years, there have been numerous attempts to study the relationship between antimicrobial use and resistance using surveillance data. The method presented here represents another of those attempts. It proved helpful to demonstrate a temporal relationship between antimicrobial use and resistance and unlike most other methods,this method can take into account the use of several antimicrobials to explain specific types of resistance, quantify the effect of use on resistance,and estimate the delay between variations in use and subsequent variations in resistance.Additionally, it has allowed us to predict future levels of resistance based on past antimicrobial use and resistance..