Characterising the Transmission Dynamics of Acinetobacter baumannii in Intensive Care Units Using Hidden Markov Models
Tan N Doan, David CM Kong, Caroline Marshall, Carl MJ Kirkpatrick, Emma S McBryde
PLOS ONE | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE | Published : 2015
Little is known about the transmission dynamics of Acinetobacter baumannii in hospitals, despite such information being critical for designing effective infection control measures. In the absence of comprehensive epidemiological data, mathematical modelling is an attractive approach to understanding transmission process. The statistical challenge in estimating transmission parameters from infection data arises from the fact that most patients are colonised asymptomatically and therefore the transmission process is not fully observed. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) can overcome this problem. We developed a continuous-time structured HMM to characterise the transmission dynamics, and to quantify ..View full abstract
TND is a recipient of the Monash Graduate Scholarship and Monash International Postgraduate Research Scholarship. ESM has received financial support from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Career Development Fellowship. All other authors: none reported. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.