Journal article

Extending spatial modelling of climate change responses beyond the realized niche: estimating, and accommodating, physiological limits and adaptive evolution

Renee A Catullo, Simon Ferrier, Ary A Hoffmann



Aim: Spatial models of the impacts of climate change generally assume that species are restricted to their realized niche, and will persist only if that niche remains accessible through time. However, species often have physiological limits beyond the range of environmental conditions experienced in their present realized niche, and these limits may also be extended further through evolution in response to the selection pressure provided by climate change. Our aim was to develop a general framework for incorporating key parameters relating to physiological limits and adaptive evolution into models of the impact of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: Four types of parameter are defined..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Funding Acknowledgements

The Science and Industry Endowment Fund grant 'Genomic basis for adaptation to climate change' to John Oakeshott (CSIRO), A.A.H., Carla Sgro (Monash University) and S.F. funded this work. A.A.H. was also supported by a fellowship from the Australian Research Council. We thank Craig Moritz and three anonymous referees for their very useful feedback.