Journal article

ASSESSING THE EXTENT OF THE AUSTRALIAN HIV EPIDEMIC FROM AIDS SURVEILLANCE DATA

NG BECKER, LF WATSON, IC MARSCHNER, M MOTIKA, SV NEWSTEAD, JB CARLIN

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH | PUBLIC HEALTH ASSOC AUSTRALIA INC | Published : 1993

Abstract

Current knowledge about human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is used to assess past and future trends in Australian HIV/AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) incidence, focusing on the precision with which such assessments can be made. The statistical method of back-projection is applied to reconstruct the past pattern of HIV incidence from surveillance data on AIDS incidence to June 1992. The results indicate that HIV incidence rose rapidly in the early 1980s to peak in 1983-1984, followed by a sharp decline. This finding is insensitive to plausible variations from the assumptions made, and is consistent with both success in preventive strategies and high levels of infection in a..

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