Journal article

Bayesian inference in the triangular cointegration model using a Jeffreys prior

GM Martin, VL Martin

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods | Published : 2000


This paper presents a strategy for conducting Bayesian inference in the triangular cointegration model. A Jeffreys prior is used to circumvent an identification problem in the parameter region in which there is a near lack of cointegration. Sampling experiments are used to compare the repeated sampling performance of the approach with alternative classical cointegration methods. The Bayesian procedure is applied to testing for substitution between private and public consumption for a range of countries, with posterior estimates produced via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulators. Copyright © 2000 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.

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