ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE FOR CLIMATE EXTREMES

Cloud, precipitation and radiation responses to large perturbations in global dimethyl sulfide

Sonya L Fiddes, Matthew T Woodhouse, Zebedee Nicholls, Todd P Lane, Robyn Schofield

<jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;strong&amp;gt;Abstract.&amp;lt;/strong&amp;gt; Natural aerosol emission represents one of the lar..

Surface Radiative Flux Bias Reduction through Regionally Varying Cloud Fraction Parameter Nudging in a Global Coupled Forecast System

James A Ridout, Neil P Barton, Matthew A Janiga, Carolyn A Reynolds, Jackie C May, Clark Rowley, Craig H Bishop

The potential of OCO-2 data to reduce the uncertainties in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; surface fluxes over Australia using a variational assimilation scheme

Yohanna Villalobos, Peter Rayner, Steven Thomas, Jeremy Silver

<jats:p>Abstract. This paper addresses the question of how much uncertainties in CO2 fluxes over Australia can be reduced by assim..

Surface ozone exceedances in Melbourne, Australia are shown to be under NOx control, as demonstrated using formaldehyde:NO2 and glyoxal:formaldehyde ratios

Robert G Ryan, Steve Rhodes, Matt Tully, Robyn Schofield

2020-12-20

Two and a half years of multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2),..

Observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and surface radiation over the Southern Ocean: An overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE and SOCRATES

Greg M McFarquhar, Chris Bretherton, Roger Marchand, Alain Protat, Paul J DeMott, Simon P Alexander, Greg C Roberts, Cynthia H Twohy, Darin Toohey, Steve Siems, Yi Huang, Robert Wood, Robert M Rauber, Sonia Lasher-Trapp, Jorgen Jensen, Jeff Stith, Jay Mace, Junshik Um, Emma Järvinen, Martin Schnaiter

2020-11-30

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating South..

A Climatology of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Southern Ocean From Four Field Campaigns During 2016-2018

SCH Truong, Y Huang, F Lang, M Messmer, I Simmonds, ST Siems, MJ Manton

2020-10-27

The Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Identification to Integrated Water Vapor Transport Threshold, Resolution, and Regridding Method

Kimberley J Reid, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Ewan Short

2020-10-27

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated narrow bands of enhanced water vapor that can cause intense rainfall and flooding. ARs only..

South Pacific Convergence Zone dynamics, variability and impacts in a changing climate

Josephine R Brown, Matthieu Lengaigne, Benjamin R Lintner, Matthew J Widlansky, Karin van der Wiel, Cyril Dutheil, Braddock K Linsley, Adrian J Matthews, James Renwick

2020-10-01

Warming Patterns Affect El Nino Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Mandy B Freund, Josephine R Brown, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Jaclyn N Brown

2020-10-01

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) eve..

Variations in precipitation across the Southern Ocean

Michael Manton, Yi Huang, Steven Siems

2020-09-22

The Southern Ocean lies beneath a unique region of the global atmosphere with minimal effects of land masses on the zonal flow. Th..

Diagnosis of a high-impact secondary cyclone during HyMeX-SOP1 IOP18

DS Carrio, V Homar, A Jansa, MA Picornell, J Campins

2020-09-15

Ocean Gyres Driven by Surface Buoyancy Forcing

Andrew McC Hogg, Bishakhdatta Gayen

2020-08-28

Midlatitude gyres in the ocean are large‐scale horizontal circulations that are intensified on the western boundary of the ocean, ..

Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss

Lauren J Vargo, Brian M Anderson, Ruzica Dadic, Huw J Horgan, Andrew N Mackintosh, Andrew D King, Andrew M Lorrey

2020-08-03

Climate Change Projections for the Australian Monsoon From CMIP6 Models

SY Narsey, JR Brown, RA Colman, F Delage, SB Power, AF Moise, H Zhang

2020-07-16

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

S Paik, SK Min, X Zhang, MG Donat, AD King, Q Sun

2020-06-28

This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observ..

Shear-Parallel Tropical Convective Systems: Importance of Cold Pools and Wind Shear

LD Grant, MW Moncrieff, TP Lane, SC van den Heever

2020-06-28

The impact of cold pools on line-orientated convective systems is assessed using idealized simulations of tropical oceanic convect..

Challenges of Increased Resolution for the Local Ensemble Tangent Linear Model

Douglas R Allen, Sergey Frolov, Rolf Langland, Craig H Bishop, Karl W Hoppel, David D Kuhl, Max Yaremchuk

2020-06-01

An ensemble-based linearized forecast model has been developed for data assimilation applications for numerical weather prediction..

Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia

M Zhang, H Yu, AD King, Y Wei, J Huang, Y Ren

2020-05-27

East-Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive regions to climate change, and the variability of extreme precipitat..

Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate

MR Grose, S Narsey, FP Delage, AJ Dowdy, M Bador, G Boschat, C Chung, JB Kajtar, S Rauniyar, MB Freund, K Lyu, H Rashid, X Zhang, S Wales, C Trenham, NJ Holbrook, T Cowan, L Alexander, JM Arblaster, S Power

2020-05-04

Outputs from new state-of-the-art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvem..

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia

Andrew D King, Debra Hudson, Eun-Pa Lim, Andrew G Marshall, Harry H Hendon, Todd P Lane, Oscar Alves

2020-04-13

Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

E Hawkins, D Frame, L Harrington, M Joshi, A King, M Rojas, R Sutton

2020-03-28

Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptat..

The role of climate variability in Australian drought

Andrew D King, Andy J Pitman, Benjamin J Henley, Anna M Ukkola, Josephine R Brown

2020-02-24

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to ..

Real World and Tropical Cyclone World. Part II: Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Formation to Uniform and Meridionally Varying Sea Surface Temperatures under Aquaplanet Conditions

KJE Walsh, S Sharmila, M Thatcher, S Wales, S Utembe, A Vaughan

2020-02-01

Gravity Wave Influences On Mesoscale Divergence: An Observational Case Study

CC Stephan, TP Lane, C Jakob

2020-01-16

Characteristics of tropospheric low-frequency gravity waves are diagnosed in radiosonde soundings from the TropicalWarm Pool-Inter..

Improving Australia's flood record for planning purposes - can we do better?

KJ Allen, P Hope, D Lam, JR Brown, RJ Wasson

2020-01-02

A global analysis of urban design types and road transport injury: an image processing study.

Jason Thompson, Mark Stevenson, Jasper S Wijnands, Kerry A Nice, Gideon Dpa Aschwanden, Jeremy Silver, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Peter Rayner, Robyn Schofield, Rohit Hariharan, Christopher N Morrison

2020-01-01

BACKGROUND: Death and injury due to motor vehicle crashes is the world's fifth leading cause of mortality and morbidity. City and ..

Evidence of a diurnal cycle in precipitation over the Southern Ocean as observed at Macquarie Island

Francisco Lang, Yi Huang, Steven Siems, Michael Manton

2020-01-01

Due to a lack of observations, relatively large discrepancies exist between precipitation products over the Southern Ocean. In thi..

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Benjamin J Henley, Josephine R Brown

2020-01-01

under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between spec..

Locally forced convection in sub‐kilometre scale simulations with the Unified Model and WRF

M Jucker, TP Lane, CL Vincent, S Webster, SA Wales, V Louf

2020-01-01

This study evaluates the performance and benefits of kilometre and sub‐kilometre scale convection permitting simulations over trop..

A Clean Air Plan for Sydney: An Overview of the Special Issue on Air Quality in New South Wales

Clare Paton-Walsh, Peter Rayner, Jack Simmons, Sonya L Fiddes, Robyn Schofield, Howard Bridgman, Stephanie Beaupark, Richard Broome, Scott D Chambers, Lisa Tzu-Chi Chang, Martin Cope, Christine T Cowie, Maximilien Desservettaz, Doreena Dominick, Kathryn Emmerson, Hugh Forehead, Ian E Galbally, Alan Griffiths, Elise-Andree Guerette, Alison Haynes

2019-12-01

<jats:p>This paper presents a summary of the key findings of the special issue of Atmosphere on Air Quality in New South Wales and..

Characterization of aerosols over the Great Barrier Reef: The influence of transported continental sources

Zhenyi Chen, Robyn Schofield, Peter Rayner, Tianshu Zhang, Cheng Liu, Claire Vincent, Sonya Fiddes, Robert George Ryan, Joel Alroe, Zoran D Ristovski, Ruhi S Humphries, Melita D Keywood, Jason Ward, Clare Paton-Walsh, Travis Naylor, Xiaowen Shu

2019-11-10

The rapid environmental changes in Australia prompt a more thorough investigation of the influence of transportation, local emissi..

The Australian Northwest Cloudband: Climatology, Mechanisms, and Association with Precipitation

Kimberley J Reid, Ian Simmonds, Claire L Vincent, Andrew D King

2019-10-01

Australian northwest cloudbands (NWCBs) are continental-scale bands of continuous cloud that stretch from northwest to southeast A..

Assessing surface heat flux products with in situ observations over the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean

Vidhi Bharti, Eric Schulz, Christopher W Fairall, Byron W Blomquist, Yi Huang, Alain Protat, Steven T Siems, Michael J Manton

2019-09-13

Given the large uncertainties in surface heat fluxes over the Southern Ocean, an assessment of fluxes obtained by European Centre ..

Evaluating Himawari-8 Cloud Products Using Shipborne and CALIPSO Observations: Cloud-top Height and Cloud-top Temperature

Yi Huang, Steven Siems, Michael Manton, Leon Majewski, Alain Protat, Hanh Nguyen

2019-09-03

Cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud-top temperature (CTT) retrieved from the Himawari-8 observations are evaluated using the active s..

Identifying Key Controls on Storm Formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J Woodhams, Cathryn E Birch, John H Marsham, Todd P Lane, Caroline L Bain, Stuart Webster

2019-09-01

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hot spot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousan..

Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia

Benjamin J Henley, Murray C Peel, Rory Nathan, Andrew David King, Anna M Ukkola, David J Karoly, Kim S Tan

2019-08-02

Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..

A first evaluation of the contribution of aeolian sand transport to lagoon island accretion in the Maldives

MJ Hilton, DR Borrie, TM Konlechner, SJ Wakes, TP Lane, PS Kench, DM Kennedy, Mohamed Aslam

2019-08-01

Aeolian sedimentation and dune development have not been reported from coral atolls at equatorial latitudes. This study presents h..

Rapidly Evolving Cirrus Clouds Modulated by Convectively Generated Gravity Waves

Abhnil A Prasad, Steven C Sherwood, Michael J Reeder, Todd P Lane

2019-07-16

Cirrus clouds can strongly affect Earth's radiation balance, but questions remain about their growth mechanisms and rates. Here we..

Diurnal Cycle of Surface Winds in the Maritime Continent Observed through Satellite Scatterometry

Ewan Short, Claire L Vincent, Todd P Lane

2019-06-01

Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry-Climate Models

Zoe E Gillett, Julie M Arblaster, Andrea J Dittus, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas E Kinnison, Olaf Morgenstern, David A Plummer, Laura E Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane A Stone, Simone Tilmes

2019-06-01

Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variab..

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Mandy B Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Helen V McGregor, Nerilie J Abram, Dietmar Dommenget

2019-06-01

El Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surf..

The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming

Andrew D King

2019-06-01

How the pattern of the Earth’s surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understa..

What does the Paris agreement mean for Australia's ecosystems?

Andrew King, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Jatin Kala

2019-05-01

Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

JM Kale Sniderman, Josephine R Brown, Jon D Woodhead, Andrew D King, Nathan P Gillett, Katarzyna B Tokarska, Katja Lorbacher, John Hellstrom, Russell N Drysdale, Malte Meinshausen

2019-03-01

Air-sea heat and momentum fluxes in the Southern Ocean

Vidhi Bharti, Christopher Fairall, Byron Blomquist, Yi Huang, Alain Protat, Peter Sullivan, Steven Siems, Michael Manton

2019-01-01

The Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, Radiation, and atmospheric Composition Over the southeRn oceaN (CAPRICORN) experiment was car..

Data assimilation strategies for state-dependent observation error variances

Craig H Bishop

2019-01-01

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and 4D‐Var Data Assimilation (DA) approaches require that a fixed observation error variance be ..

Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world

Luke J Harrington, Sophie Lewis, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Andrew D King, Friederike EL Otto

2019-01-01

Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluc..

Seasonal dependence of rainfall extremes in and around Jakarta, Indonesia

Sopia Lestari, Andrew King, Claire Vincent, David Karoly, Alain Protat

2019-01-01

This study investigates the interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variation in rainfall extremes (REs) in Jakarta and surroundi..

Sensitivity of the orographic precipitation across the Australian Snowy Mountains to regional climate indices

Fahimeh Sarmadi, Yi Huang, Steven T Siems, Michael J Manton

2019-01-01

<jats:p>The wintertime (May–October) precipitation across south-eastern Australia, and the Snowy Mountains, was studied for 22 yea..

The role of gravity wave breaking in a case of upper-level near-cloud turbulence

Dragana Zovko-Rajak, Todd P Lane, Robert D Sharman, Stanley B Trier

2019-01-01

An observed turbulence encounter that occurred outside a mesoscale convective system over the central USA on 3 June 2005 is invest..

THE ROLE OF NATURAL VARIABILITY AND ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE 2017/18 TASMAN SEA MARINE HEATWAVE

SE Perkins-Kirkpatrick, AD King, EA Cougnon, MR Grose, ECJ Oliver, NJ Holbrook, SC Lewis, F Pourasghar

2019-01-01

Improving Assimilation of Radiance Observations by Implementing Model Space Localization in an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Lili Lei, Jeffrey S Whitaker, Craig Bishop

2018-12-01

Experiments using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere Dynamical Core Global Forecasting..

Regionally Enhanced Global (REG) 4D-Var

Michael A Herrera, Istvan Szunyogh, Adam Brainard, David D Kuhl, Karl Hoppel, Craig H Bishop, Teddy R Holt, Qingyun Zhao, Sabrina Rainwater

2018-12-01

A regionally enhanced global (REG) data assimilation (DA) method is proposed. The technique blends high resolution model informati..

The Mechanisms Leading to a Stratospheric Hydration by Overshooting Convection

Thibaut Dauhut, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Peter H Haynes, Todd P Lane

2018-12-01

Overshoots are convective air parcels that rise beyond their level of neutral buoyancy. A giga-large-eddy simulation (100-m cubic ..

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C of Global Warming

Andrew D King, Reto Knutti, Peter Uhe, Daniel M Mitchell, Sophie C Lewis, Julie M Arblaster, Nicolas Freychet

2018-09-01

Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the ta..

Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations

EM Fischer, U Beyerle, CF Schleussner, AD King, R Knutti

2018-08-28

Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estima..

Mesoscale Variation in Diabatic Heating around Sumatra, and Its Modulation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Claire L Vincent, Todd P Lane

2018-08-01

Diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent region is controlled by a unique blend of mesoscale variability associated with steep t..

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

AD King, LJ Harrington

2018-05-28

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target...

Characteristics of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Southern Ocean in Response to the Synoptic Forcing

F Lang, Y Huang, ST Siems, MJ Manton

2018-01-01

The characteristics of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) in relation to synoptic meteorology over the Southern Ocean ar..

Cloud, precipitation and radiation responses to large perturbations in global dimethyl sulfide

Sonya L Fiddes, Matthew T Woodhouse, Zebedee Nicholls, Todd P Lane, Robyn Schofield

2018-01-01

Natural aerosol emission represents one of the largest uncertainties in our understanding of the radiation budget. Sulfur emitted ..

The Role of Cold Pools in Tropical Oceanic Convective Systems

Leah D Grant, Todd P Lane, Susan C van den Heever

2018-01-01

The processes governing organized tropical convective systems are not completely understood, despite their important influences on..

Using Global and Regional Model Simulations to Understand Maritime Continent Wet-Season Rainfall Variability

Andrew D King, Claire L Vincent

2018-01-01

The Maritime Continent is a densely populated area of complex topography located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is an a..

A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

Paul D Williams, M Joan Alexander, Elizabeth A Barnes, Amy H Butler, Huw C Davies, Chaim I Garfinkel, Yochanan Kushnir, Todd P Lane, Julie K Lundquist, Olivia Martius, Ryan N Maue, W Richard Peltier, Kaoru Sato, Adam A Scaife, Chidong Zhang

2017-11-16